There has been some concern in recent months over an imminent real  estate bubble in Malaysia. How real is this threat or is it merely  confi ned to a few hot spots?
 CONCERNS over whether the local  housing market is overheating and will lead to an asset bubble are  raising questions on whether there is a need for more tightening  measures to curb speculative buying and ensure the market stays  sustainable.
  
 Dr Yeah Kim Leng ... ‘Anything can trigger a collapse. An economic slowdown, for example.’    The  local housing market has not “hit the roof” like in some places in the  region such as in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore which have recorded  sharp price jumps of 40% to 60% since last year.
 Nevertheless,  prices of landed houses in some popular areas in the Klang Valley,  Penang and Johor have appreciated by 10% to 30% over the past six to  eight months.
 
 Tang Chee Meng ... ‘The state of the property market is very much dependent on the state of the country’s economy.’   If  the Government decides to reintroduce the RPGT in its entirety,  property speculators will get the brunt of the “axe” as gains from  property sales within the first five years of purchase will be subjected  to a tax of 5% to 30%.
 Usually if a market is flushed with speculative  buying and a bubble is imminent, property prices will spike sharply  across the board of a certain market within a short time like what is  happening in a number of countries in the region today. 
A case in  point – a 26-year-old government-built apartment of 420 sq ft in the  Sham Shui Po area of Kowloon district was transacted at HK$1.98mil, or  HK$4,714 per sq ft.
 
  Reason for concern?
 Is Malaysia facing a similar risk and is there worry of an imminent overheating or bubble?
 Real  Estate and Housing Developers’ Association (Rehda) president Datuk  Michael Yam discounts the possibility of overheating or an asset bubble  in the local market.
  “We  believe the steep price increases are only reported in scattered  locations in the Kuala Lumpur City Centre and some landed housing  projects in the Greater Kuala Lumpur area. This does not represent a  bubble but more of a short-term deviation from fundamentals that are due  to isolated speculative activities in some areas.
 “The recent spurt in prices may be due to the effect of the earlier  stimulus package and liquidity but that has stabilised and a plateau  has been formed,” he relates to StarBizWeek.
 
  “Landed  terrace and semi-detached houses have seen big capital appreciation due  to the limited stock available and future supply especially in prime  locations. As a consequence, prices of current stock in strategic areas  of Medan Damansara, Bangsar, Sri Hartamas, Bandar Utama and even new  launches at Desa Park City are at or above the RM1mil mark for a double  or 3-storey terrace house.
Malaysia Property Inc chief executive officer Kumar Tharmalingam says the issue of a bubble is being overblown.
  “A  single swallow does not make a summer. There may be certain projects  fetching premium values or prices for their products, but it is not  representative of the overall market.
 “ The strong buying interest is not across the board but is mainly centred  in the high growth markets of the Klang Valley, Penang and Johor,” he  adds.
 Kumar says concerns that the potential slowdown in the West will affect the local market are also overrated.
    An imminent uptrend?
  According to Mah Sing Group Bhd  group managing director and chief executive Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum, the  property market is still in the early to mid-phase of an upcycle.
 “We  do not see a strong risk of a property bubble happening yet and there  is no sign of overheating. The price increase in properties has not been  broad-based, but demand driven and rather selectively in prime  locations.”
 Leong says certain locations and types of products  are more resilient in terms of demand, capital appreciation and value  preservation.
 “A healthy property market is good for the economy  and quality properties in prime locations are deemed to provide a good  hedge against inflation. Barring any external shocks, we are cautiously  optimistic that the property market should continue to do well in the  short and medium term,” Leong says.
 Kumar concurs with Yam that  the Government’s stimulus packages are only filtering into the system  now and are creating greater confidence and interest in the property  market.
“Developers are  venturing into niche products with better quality finishings and  designs, as buyers want the least fuss these days. This has driven  developers to go into higher value residences,” he concludes